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Aktobe vs Akzhayik — Premier League 2019

Aktobe
Aktobe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Akzhayik
Akzhayik
7/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aktobe51%
×Draw26%
Akzhayik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aktobe
1.52
Akzhayik
0.91

Aktobe creates 67% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 26 away

creates per match

Aktobe
1.66
Akzhayik
0.65

allows per match

Aktobe
1.17
Akzhayik
1.38

finishing

Aktobe+0.00on par
Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aktobe ↓

Akzhayik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aktobe or draw
77%
Aktobe or Akzhayik
74%
Draw or Akzhayik
49%

Winning margin

Aktobe wins by 2+
26%
Akzhayik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aktobe 1+ goals
78%
Aktobe 2+ goals
45%
Aktobe 3+ goals
20%
Akzhayik 1+ goals
60%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
23%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aktobe (draw refunded)
69%
Akzhayik (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aktobe at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aktobe attack 1.66 + Akzhayik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Akzhayik attack 0.65 + Aktobe defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aktobe scores more
51%
level
26%
Akzhayik scores more
23%

Aktobe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aktobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aktobe 2–1 Akzhayik

Aktobe beat Akzhayik 2-1 in Premier League on July 2, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Aktobe.