Aktobe Jas 2–1 Jas Qyran: Result & Stats

Aktobe Jas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jas Qyran

R. Gabdrakhmanov 81'

A. Azhimov 52'

N. Agzambayev 38'

4/13/2023

1. Division · Round 2Stadion ODYuShOR No. 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aktobe Jas40%

×Draw22%

Jas Qyran38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aktobe JasExpected goals in this matchJas Qyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.76

Aktobe Jas

1.81

Jas Qyran

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

1.21

2.32

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Aktobe Jas

1.20

Jas Qyran

1.21

allows per match

Aktobe Jas

2.32

Jas Qyran

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aktobe Jas+0.00on par

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aktobe Jas ↓

Jas Qyran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Aktobe Jas or draw

62%

Aktobe Jas or Jas Qyran

78%

Draw or Jas Qyran

60%

Winning margin

Aktobe Jas wins by 2+

21%

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Aktobe Jas 1+ goals

84%

Aktobe Jas 2+ goals

54%

Aktobe Jas 3+ goals

27%

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

83%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

52%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Aktobe Jas (draw refunded)

51%

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aktobe Jas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.32 · 60 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aktobe Jas attack 1.20 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Aktobe Jas defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aktobe Jas scores more

40%

level

22%

Jas Qyran scores more

38%

Aktobe Jas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aktobe Jas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

N. Agzambayev

52'

A. Azhimov

81'

R. Gabdrakhmanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff