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Akropolis vs Umea FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Akropolis
Akropolis
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Umea FF
Umea FF
6/2/2019Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Round 11Spånga IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Akropolis73%
×Draw16%
Umea FF11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akropolis
2.52
Umea FF
0.85

Akropolis creates 196% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Akropolis
2.67
Umea FF
0.83

allows per match

Akropolis
0.87
Umea FF
2.37

finishing

Akropolis+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akropolis ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Akropolis or draw
89%
Akropolis or Umea FF
84%
Draw or Umea FF
27%

Winning margin

Akropolis wins by 2+
51%
Umea FF wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akropolis 1+ goals
92%
Akropolis 2+ goals
71%
Akropolis 3+ goals
45%
Umea FF 1+ goals
57%
Umea FF 2+ goals
21%
Umea FF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akropolis (draw refunded)
87%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akropolis at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akropolis attack 2.67 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.52

Umea FF attack 0.83 + Akropolis defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Akropolis scores more
73%
level
16%
Umea FF scores more
11%

Akropolis at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Akropolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Akropolis 4–0 Umea FF

Akropolis beat Umea FF 4-0 in Ettan - Norra on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Spånga IP in Stockholm.