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Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2026

Akropolis
Akropolis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
10/24/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 26Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akropolis43%
×Draw26%
Landskrona BoIS30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akropolis
1.44
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

Akropolis creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 98 away

creates per match

Akropolis
1.23
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

allows per match

Akropolis
1.16
Landskrona BoIS
1.64

finishing

Akropolis+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akropolis ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Akropolis or draw
70%
Akropolis or Landskrona BoIS
74%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
57%

Winning margin

Akropolis wins by 2+
21%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akropolis 1+ goals
76%
Akropolis 2+ goals
42%
Akropolis 3+ goals
18%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
69%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
32%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akropolis (draw refunded)
59%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akropolis at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akropolis attack 1.23 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Akropolis defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akropolis scores more
43%
level
26%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
30%

Akropolis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Akropolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS

Akropolis beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 in Superettan on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.