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Akropolis vs Djurgardens IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Akropolis
Akropolis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
8/22/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundGrimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Akropolis9%
×Draw16%
Djurgardens IF75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akropolis
0.74
Djurgardens IF
2.46

Djurgardens IF creates 232% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Akropolis
0.67
Djurgardens IF
3.25

allows per match

Akropolis
1.67
Djurgardens IF
0.81

finishing

Akropolis+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akropolis ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akropolis or draw
25%
Akropolis or Djurgardens IF
84%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
91%

Winning margin

Akropolis wins by 2+
3%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Akropolis 1+ goals
52%
Akropolis 2+ goals
17%
Akropolis 3+ goals
4%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
91%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
70%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Akropolis (draw refunded)
11%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akropolis at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akropolis attack 0.67 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + Akropolis defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Akropolis scores more
9%
level
16%
Djurgardens IF scores more
75%

Djurgardens IF at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akropolis vs Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Akropolis 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.