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Akropolis vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Akropolis
Akropolis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
6/16/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 1Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akropolis46%
×Draw26%
Dalkurd FF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akropolis
1.45
Dalkurd FF
1.07

Akropolis creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 49 away

creates per match

Akropolis
1.23
Dalkurd FF
0.98

allows per match

Akropolis
1.16
Dalkurd FF
1.67

finishing

Akropolis+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akropolis ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Akropolis or draw
72%
Akropolis or Dalkurd FF
74%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
54%

Winning margin

Akropolis wins by 2+
22%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akropolis 1+ goals
77%
Akropolis 2+ goals
42%
Akropolis 3+ goals
18%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
66%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
29%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Akropolis (draw refunded)
62%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akropolis at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akropolis attack 1.23 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Akropolis defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Akropolis scores more
46%
level
26%
Dalkurd FF scores more
28%

Akropolis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Akropolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akropolis vs Dalkurd FF

Akropolis and Dalkurd FF drew 0-0 in Superettan on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.