Akropolis 1–0 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Akropolis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

C. Weilid 44'

10/3/2021

Superettan · Round 24Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akropolis44%

×Draw27%

AFC Eskilstuna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkropolisExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.09

Akropolis

1.40

AFC Eskilstuna

1.09

Akropolis creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 77 away

1.23

creates per match

1.03

1.16

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Akropolis

1.23

AFC Eskilstuna

1.03

allows per match

Akropolis

1.16

AFC Eskilstuna

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akropolis+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akropolis ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Akropolis or draw

71%

Akropolis or AFC Eskilstuna

73%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

56%

Winning margin

Akropolis wins by 2+

21%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Akropolis 1+ goals

75%

Akropolis 2+ goals

41%

Akropolis 3+ goals

17%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

66%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

30%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Akropolis (draw refunded)

60%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akropolis at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akropolis attack 1.23 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.03 + Akropolis defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Akropolis scores more

44%

level

27%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

29%

Akropolis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Akropolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

44'

57'

57'

69'

M. Bouvin← A. Stadler

69'

K. Lounis← P. Åsbrink

77'

L. Mattsson← E. Figueroa

83'

Abdelkarim Chaouche

83'

A. Linnér← A. Alsanati

83'

J. Manns← V. Fors

86'

Mauricio Albornoz

90'

Ashley Coffey

Statistics

AkropolisAFC

Overview

4Corners6

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0