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Akron vs Volgar Astrakhan — Cup 2019

Akron
Akron
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
11/2/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 6th RoundStadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Akron47%
×Draw25%
Volgar Astrakhan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.62
Volgar Astrakhan
1.22

Akron creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Akron
1.86
Volgar Astrakhan
1.50

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Volgar Astrakhan
1.38

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Akron or draw
71%
Akron or Volgar Astrakhan
75%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
53%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
24%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
80%
Akron 2+ goals
48%
Akron 3+ goals
22%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
70%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
34%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
62%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.62

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.50 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Akron scores more
47%
level
25%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
29%

Akron at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Akron 0–1 Volgar Astrakhan

Volgar Astrakhan beat Akron 1-0 in Cup on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.