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Akron vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Cup 2019

Akron
Akron
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
8/4/2019CupCup · 3rd RoundStadion Kristall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Akron41%
×Draw26%
Volga Ulyanovsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.25

Akron creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Akron
1.86
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.57

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akron or draw
67%
Akron or Volga Ulyanovsk
74%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
59%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
20%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
76%
Akron 2+ goals
42%
Akron 3+ goals
17%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
71%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
36%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
56%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.57 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akron scores more
41%
level
26%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
33%

Akron at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akron vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Akron beat Volga Ulyanovsk 3-0 in Cup on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall in Syzran'.