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Akron vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10/23/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Akron47%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.39
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.96

Akron creates 45% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 123 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akron or draw
74%
Akron or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
53%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
75%
Akron 2+ goals
40%
Akron 3+ goals
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
62%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
25%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
64%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Akron scores more
47%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
26%

Akron at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Akron 3–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Akron beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-1 in First League on October 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.