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Akron vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
9/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akron35%
×Draw26%
Rubin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.32
Rubin
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 105 away

creates per match

Akron
1.25
Rubin
1.02

allows per match

Akron
1.81
Rubin
1.39

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Akron or draw
61%
Akron or Rubin
74%
Draw or Rubin
65%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
15%
Rubin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
73%
Akron 2+ goals
38%
Akron 3+ goals
15%
Rubin 1+ goals
76%
Rubin 2+ goals
41%
Rubin 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
47%
Rubin (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rubin attack 1.02 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Akron scores more
35%
level
26%
Rubin scores more
39%

Rubin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akron vs Rubin

Akron and Rubin drew 2-2 in Premier League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.