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Akron vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
3/19/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Akron38%
×Draw30%
Rotor Volgograd32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.13
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

Akron creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 87 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Akron or draw
68%
Akron or Rotor Volgograd
70%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
62%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
16%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
68%
Akron 2+ goals
31%
Akron 3+ goals
11%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
63%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
26%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
55%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Akron scores more
38%
level
30%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
32%

Akron at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akron vs Rotor Volgograd

Akron beat Rotor Volgograd 1-0 in First League on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.