Akron 5–0 Peresvet Podolsk: Result & Stats | Cup

Akron

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Peresvet Podolsk

S. Kozhedub 82'

D. Sagutkin 70'

V. Azarov 53'

K. Bazelyuk 41', 34'

11/2/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 5th RoundStadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Akron63%

×Draw20%

Peresvet Podolsk17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchPeresvet Podolsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.97

Akron

2.10

Peresvet Podolsk

0.97

Akron creates 116% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

1.86

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Akron

1.86

Peresvet Podolsk

1.00

allows per match

Akron

0.93

Peresvet Podolsk

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Akron or draw

83%

Akron or Peresvet Podolsk

80%

Draw or Peresvet Podolsk

37%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

39%

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

88%

Akron 2+ goals

62%

Akron 3+ goals

35%

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

62%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

25%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

79%

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.00 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Akron scores more

63%

level

20%

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

17%

Akron at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Kirichenko

34'

K. Bazelyuk

41'

K. Bazelyuk

46'

I. Melnikov← G. Tulushev

53'

V. Azarov

56'

M. Gadzhimagomedov← D. Kirichenko

58'

E. Nasedkin

63'

A. Gusev← E. Boytsov

63'

R. Dzhafarov← A. Yeghiazaryan

70'

D. Sagutkin

78'

M. Grebenev← D. Sabusov

78'

D. Kogonia← M. Pogonin

82'

S. Kozhedub

Akron

Peresvet

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽

Manager: E. Kaleshin

63'▲A. Gusev←▼E. Boytsov

Akron substitutes

Gusev

Manager: A. Avakyants

46'▲I. Melnikov←▼G. Tulushev

56'▲M. Gadzhimagomedov←▼D. Kirichenko

63'▲R. Dzhafarov←▼A. Yeghiazaryan

78'▲M. Grebenev←▼D. Sabusov

78'▲D. Kogonia←▼M. Pogonin

Peresvet Podolsk substitutes

MelnikovGadzhimagomedovDzhafarovGrebenevKogonia

Cup: Akron 5–0 Peresvet Podolsk

Akron beat Peresvet Podolsk 5-0 in Cup on November 2, 2022.

Goals: K. Bazelyuk (34', 41'), V. Azarov (53'), D. Sagutkin (70'), S. Kozhedub (82').

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.

Akron vs Peresvet Podolsk — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Akron 5–0 Peresvet Podolsk