Akron 0–0 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Akron

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leningradets

4/24/2024

First League · Round 29Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Akron44%

×Draw29%

Leningradets26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.88

Akron

1.23

Leningradets

0.88

Akron creates 40% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 18 away

1.30

creates per match

0.83

0.93

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Akron

1.30

Leningradets

0.83

allows per match

Akron

0.93

Leningradets

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Akron or draw

74%

Akron or Leningradets

71%

Draw or Leningradets

56%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

20%

Leningradets wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

71%

Akron 2+ goals

35%

Akron 3+ goals

13%

Leningradets 1+ goals

59%

Leningradets 2+ goals

22%

Leningradets 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

63%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Leningradets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Leningradets defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Leningradets attack 0.83 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Akron scores more

44%

level

29%

Leningradets scores more

26%

Akron at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff