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Akron vs Khimki — First League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Khimki
Khimki
A. Rudenko 19'
S. Terekhov 8'
10/2/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Akron38%
×Draw28%
Khimki34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.25
Khimki
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 50 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Khimki
1.38

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Khimki
1.20

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akron or draw
66%
Akron or Khimki
72%
Draw or Khimki
62%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
17%
Khimki wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
71%
Akron 2+ goals
36%
Akron 3+ goals
13%
Khimki 1+ goals
69%
Khimki 2+ goals
32%
Khimki 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
53%
Khimki (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Khimki defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Khimki attack 1.38 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Akron scores more
38%
level
28%
Khimki scores more
34%

Akron at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Terekhov
19'
A. Rudenko
40'
Vladislav Galkin
46'
M. Bokoev← B. Dimoski
46'
K. Danilin← V. Galkin
46'
A. Eldarushev← E. Pesegov
57'
Sergey Varatynov
60'
K. Panchenko← B. Magomedov
60'
A. Mokhammad← A. Rudenko
60'
L. Skvortsov← A. Kulishev
64'
Amir Mokhammad
70'
R. Apekov← A. Kilin
70'
A. Pogosov← S. Makarov
84'
O. Isaenko← A. Mokhammad
86'
I. Sadygov← L. Skvortsov
90+1'
Abu-Said Eldarushev
90'
Marat Bokoev

Statistics

AkronKhimki
Overview
10Corners3
Discipline
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Akron vs Khimki

Khimki beat Akron 2-0 in First League on October 2, 2023.

Goals: S. Terekhov (8'), A. Rudenko (19').

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.