Akron 3–1 FK Sokol Saratov: Result & Stats | Cup

Akron

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Sokol Saratov

7/28/2019

Cup · 2nd RoundStadion Kristall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Akron48%

×Draw26%

FK Sokol Saratov26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchFK Sokol Saratov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.05

Akron

1.52

FK Sokol Saratov

1.05

Akron creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.86

creates per match

1.17

0.93

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Akron

1.86

FK Sokol Saratov

1.17

allows per match

Akron

0.93

FK Sokol Saratov

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Akron or draw

74%

Akron or FK Sokol Saratov

74%

Draw or FK Sokol Saratov

52%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

24%

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

78%

Akron 2+ goals

45%

Akron 3+ goals

20%

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

65%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

28%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

65%

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.17 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akron scores more

48%

level

26%

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

26%

Akron at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff