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Akron vs FC UFA — First League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC UFA
FC UFA
9/25/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Akron49%
×Draw28%
FC UFA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.35
FC UFA
0.81

Akron creates 67% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 50 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
FC UFA
0.70

allows per match

Akron
0.93
FC UFA
1.40

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akron or draw
78%
Akron or FC UFA
72%
Draw or FC UFA
51%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
24%
FC UFA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
74%
Akron 2+ goals
39%
Akron 3+ goals
15%
FC UFA 1+ goals
56%
FC UFA 2+ goals
19%
FC UFA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
69%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + FC UFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC UFA attack 0.70 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Akron scores more
49%
level
28%
FC UFA scores more
22%

Akron at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akron 1 – 1 FC UFA

Akron and FC UFA drew 1-1 in First League on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.