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Akron vs FC Orenburg — Premier League 2018

Akron
Akron
Preview
16:00
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
12/5/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Samara Arena
Big match
41%
Akron
model favours
41%24%35%
1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akron41%
×Draw24%
FC Orenburg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.57
FC Orenburg
1.43

Akron creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

Akron
1.25
FC Orenburg
1.05

allows per match

Akron
1.81
FC Orenburg
1.89

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

FC Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Akron or draw
65%
Akron or FC Orenburg
76%
Draw or FC Orenburg
59%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
20%
FC Orenburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
79%
Akron 2+ goals
46%
Akron 3+ goals
21%
FC Orenburg 1+ goals
76%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
42%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
54%
FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

FC Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + FC Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Orenburg attack 1.05 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akron scores more
41%
level
24%
FC Orenburg scores more
35%

Akron at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Orenburg fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Akron
Balanced
FC Orenburg
Attack-heavy
47%Possession48%
74%Pass accuracy77%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap14.2
1.58xG1.86
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AkronFC Orenburg

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Akron
3
Draws
4
FC Orenburg
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 38%
0–21–21–02–20–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Akron
DLWWL
Orenburg
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akron face FC Orenburg (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Akron hosting FC Orenburg. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Akron host FC Orenburg at Samara Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.