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Akron vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
5/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Solidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akron40%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Makhachkala33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.17

Akron creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Akron
1.25
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.52

allows per match

Akron
1.81
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.42

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Akron or draw
67%
Akron or Dinamo Makhachkala
73%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
60%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
74%
Akron 2+ goals
38%
Akron 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
55%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Akron scores more
40%
level
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
33%

Akron at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Akron 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala

Akron beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 in Premier League on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Solidarnost Samara Arena in Samara.