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Akron vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2026

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
4/11/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Crystal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Akron56%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Bryansk18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.50
Dinamo Bryansk
0.71

Akron creates 111% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 21 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akron or draw
82%
Akron or Dinamo Bryansk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
44%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
78%
Akron 2+ goals
44%
Akron 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
51%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
16%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
76%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Akron scores more
56%
level
26%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
18%

Akron at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akron vs Dinamo Bryansk

Akron and Dinamo Bryansk drew 1-1 in First League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Crystal Stadium in Zhigulevsk.