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Akron vs Akhmat — Premier League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Akhmat
Akhmat
3/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akron36%
×Draw25%
Akhmat38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.36
Akhmat
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 121 away

creates per match

Akron
1.25
Akhmat
1.01

allows per match

Akron
1.81
Akhmat
1.47

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Akron or draw
62%
Akron or Akhmat
75%
Draw or Akhmat
64%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
16%
Akhmat wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
74%
Akron 2+ goals
39%
Akron 3+ goals
16%
Akhmat 1+ goals
76%
Akhmat 2+ goals
41%
Akhmat 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
48%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + Akhmat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Akhmat attack 1.01 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Akron scores more
36%
level
25%
Akhmat scores more
38%

Akhmat at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akron vs Akhmat

Akron and Akhmat drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.