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Akron II vs Nosta — Second League - Group 4 2020

Akron II
Akron II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nosta
Nosta
11/12/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Akron II48%
×Draw24%
Nosta27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron II
1.66
Nosta
1.19

Akron II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 85 away

creates per match

Akron II
1.48
Nosta
0.89

allows per match

Akron II
1.48
Nosta
1.84

finishing

Akron II+0.00on par
Nosta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron II ↓

Nosta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Akron II or draw
73%
Akron II or Nosta
76%
Draw or Nosta
52%

Winning margin

Akron II wins by 2+
25%
Nosta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akron II 1+ goals
81%
Akron II 2+ goals
49%
Akron II 3+ goals
23%
Nosta 1+ goals
70%
Nosta 2+ goals
33%
Nosta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Akron II (draw refunded)
64%
Nosta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Nosta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron II attack 1.48 + Nosta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nosta attack 0.89 + Akron II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akron II scores more
48%
level
24%
Nosta scores more
27%

Akron II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akron II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Akron II 1–1 Nosta

Akron II and Nosta drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.