Akron II 1–5 Amkar: Result & Stats

Akron II

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Amkar

M. Kholodov 9'

D. Zuev 80'

D. Kalayda 62', 7'

A. Kotik 40', 18'

7/6/2025

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Kristall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Akron II32%

×Draw25%

Amkar43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akron IIExpected goals in this matchAmkar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.53

Akron II

1.28

Amkar

1.53

Amkar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 53 away

1.48

creates per match

1.58

1.48

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Akron II

1.48

Amkar

1.58

allows per match

Akron II

1.48

Amkar

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron II+0.00on par

Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron II ↓

Amkar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Akron II or draw

57%

Akron II or Amkar

75%

Draw or Amkar

68%

Winning margin

Akron II wins by 2+

14%

Amkar wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Akron II 1+ goals

72%

Akron II 2+ goals

37%

Akron II 3+ goals

14%

Amkar 1+ goals

78%

Amkar 2+ goals

45%

Amkar 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Akron II (draw refunded)

43%

Amkar (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron II attack 1.48 + Amkar defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Amkar attack 1.58 + Akron II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akron II scores more

32%

level

25%

Amkar scores more

43%

Amkar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Kalayda← M. Kozhin

7'

9'

18'

28'

38'

40'

42'

49'

51'

62'

67'

L. Tolkachev← N. Goldobin

67'

R. Shoronov←

67'

D. Dibirgadzhiev← A. Kotik

70'

R. Kulyakhtin← T. Blokhin

70'

A. Chaligava← C. Batyrbiy

74'

M. Gorbunov

75'

M. Gorbunov← D. Chushyalov

80'

D. Zuev

Akron

Amkar

1

66

30

45

33

14

▼

Chushyalo

77

⚽

Zuev

17

▼

Kozhin

7

Tyukalov

97

▼

Goldobin

9

⚽2

▼

95

17

86

55

89

75

62

▼

Batyrbiy

88

▼

Bitel

33

⚽

Kholodov

76

▼

Blokhin

39

Makeev

Manager: S. Vakhteev

42'▲S. Kachura←▼D. Bitel

70'▲R. Kulyakhtin←▼T. Blokhin

70'▲A. Chaligava←▼C. Batyrbiy

Akron II substitutes

72Shalonikov57Kachura64Pavlenko60Kulyakhtin28Chaligava92Ryzhkov

Manager: A. Blazhko

6'▲D. Kalayda←▼M. Kozhin

67'▲L. Tolkachev←▼N. Goldobin

67'▲R. Shoronov←▼—

67'▲D. Dibirgadzhiev←▼A. Kotik

75'▲M. Gorbunov←▼D. Chushyalov

Amkar substitutes

57Trifonov3Zhilov21Nikiforenko6Tolkachev20Kalayda38Gorbunov70Shoronov11Dibirgadzhiev

Akron II 1 – 5 Amkar

Amkar beat Akron II 5-1 in Second League - Group 4 on July 6, 2025.

Goals: D. Kalayda (7', 62'), M. Kholodov (9'), A. Kotik (18', 40'), D. Zuev (80').

The match was played at Kristall Stadium in Zhigulyovsk.

Akron II vs Amkar — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Akron II 1 – 5 Amkar