Akritas 2–1 Olympiakos: Result & Stats

Akritas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Olympiakos

Eraso 70', 12'

F. Durmishaj 55'

4/18/2023

1. Division · Relegation Round - 6Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Akritas35%

×Draw27%

Olympiakos38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkritasExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Akritas

1.21

Olympiakos

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 83 away

0.86

creates per match

0.95

1.64

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Akritas

0.86

Olympiakos

0.95

allows per match

Akritas

1.64

Olympiakos

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akritas+0.00on par

Olympiakos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akritas ↓

Olympiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Akritas or draw

62%

Akritas or Olympiakos

73%

Draw or Olympiakos

65%

Winning margin

Akritas wins by 2+

15%

Olympiakos wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Akritas 1+ goals

70%

Akritas 2+ goals

34%

Akritas 3+ goals

12%

Olympiakos 1+ goals

72%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

37%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Akritas (draw refunded)

47%

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akritas at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akritas attack 0.86 + Olympiakos defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.21

Olympiakos attack 0.95 + Akritas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Akritas scores more

35%

level

27%

Olympiakos scores more

38%

Olympiakos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Eraso

46'

P. Bardy← S. Mouktaris

46'

F. Kah← S. Charalambous

46'

O. Koroma← L. Enoh

55'

F. Durmishaj

57'

Bryan Alceus

60'

Davi Araújo← C. Karayiannis

66'

70'

78'

84'

84'

S. Hendriks← Nani Soares

90+1'

H. Dramé← Vasco Lopes

90+1'

Matheus Clemente← I. Kone

90+1'

E. Salli← T. Gorupec

Shots

Statistics

AkritasOlympiakos

Overview

12Total Shots12

2Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots12

8On Target2

3Off Target6

1Blocked4

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2