Akritas 1–0 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Akritas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ethnikos Achna

G. Chatzivasilis 6' (pen)

5/1/2026

1. Division · Relegation Group - 31Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Akritas37%

×Draw25%

Ethnikos Achna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkritasExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.43

Akritas

1.40

Ethnikos Achna

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 101 away

0.86

creates per match

1.22

1.64

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Akritas

0.86

Ethnikos Achna

1.22

allows per match

Akritas

1.64

Ethnikos Achna

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akritas+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akritas ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Akritas or draw

62%

Akritas or Ethnikos Achna

75%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

63%

Winning margin

Akritas wins by 2+

17%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Akritas 1+ goals

75%

Akritas 2+ goals

41%

Akritas 3+ goals

17%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

76%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

42%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Akritas (draw refunded)

49%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akritas at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akritas attack 0.86 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Akritas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Akritas scores more

37%

level

25%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

38%

Ethnikos Achna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

G. ChatzivasilisPenalty

17'

Carlitos← B. Anang

45+2'

Pavel Zabelin

46'

M. Pechlivanis← R. Ofori

64'

Y. Castro← G. Chatzivasilis

64'

J. Romo← E. Vignato

67'

P. Gonzalez← Luis Felipe

74'

J. Siverio← Neneco

80'

R. Camacho← L. Machado

88'

G. Vasiliou← E. Taffertshofer

89'

90+3'

90+3'

90+1'

90+3'

Akritas5-4-1

Ethnikos5-4-1

33

Anderegge

70

Giousis

77

▼

Neneco

27

Confais

30

Papageorg

37

▼

Ofori

29

Bahanack

12

Lomotey

5

▼

Felipe

20

▼

38

1

19

28

5

4

82

▼

Anang

25

▼

Vignato

23

▼

Taffertsh

29

Zinonos

26

⚽

▼

Chatzivas

37

Manu

Manager: Alexandros Garpozis

17'▲Carlitos←▼B. Anang

64'▲Y. Castro←▼G. Chatzivasilis

64'▲J. Romo←▼E. Vignato

88'▲G. Vasiliou←▼E. Taffertshofer

Akritas substitutes

99Becker3Genethliou17Castro77Limbombe22Benito9Romo88Theokli30Vasiliou80Carlitos7Barry14Fernandez

Manager: Vesko Mihajlovic

46'▲M. Pechlivanis←▼R. Ofori

67'▲P. Gonzalez←▼Luis Felipe

74'▲J. Siverio←▼Neneco

80'▲R. Camacho←▼L. Machado

Ethnikos Achna substitutes

40Flores80Angelopoulos24Psaltis17Gonzalez47Perdios10Pechlivanis72Papakonstantinou14Dimitriou44Giallouros8Maia64Camacho99Siverio

Match Recap: Akritas vs Ethnikos Achna

Akritas beat Ethnikos Achna 1-0 in 1. Division on May 1, 2026.

Goals: G. Chatzivasilis (6' pen).

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.

Akritas vs Ethnikos Achna — 1. Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Akritas vs Ethnikos Achna