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Åkra vs Sola — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åkra
Åkra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sola
Sola
4/18/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 2Åkra kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Åkra43%
×Draw22%
Sola36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åkra
1.96
Sola
1.78

Åkra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Åkra
1.63
Sola
1.25

allows per match

Åkra
2.32
Sola
2.30

finishing

Åkra+0.00on par
Sola+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åkra ↓

Sola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Åkra or draw
64%
Åkra or Sola
78%
Draw or Sola
57%

Winning margin

Åkra wins by 2+
23%
Sola wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Åkra 1+ goals
86%
Åkra 2+ goals
58%
Åkra 3+ goals
31%
Sola 1+ goals
83%
Sola 2+ goals
53%
Sola 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Åkra (draw refunded)
54%
Sola (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åkra at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

Sola away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åkra attack 1.63 + Sola defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sola attack 1.25 + Åkra defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Åkra scores more
43%
level
22%
Sola scores more
36%

Åkra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Åkra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åkra vs Sola

Sola beat Åkra 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Åkra kunstgress in Åkrehamn.