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Akhmat vs Zenit — Cup 2019

Akhmat
Akhmat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zenit
Zenitadvanced
11/27/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsAkhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akhmat37%
×Draw26%
Zenit37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.36
Zenit
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.82
Zenit
1.45

allows per match

Akhmat
1.29
Zenit
0.91

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
63%
Akhmat or Zenit
74%
Draw or Zenit
63%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
17%
Zenit wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
74%
Akhmat 2+ goals
39%
Akhmat 3+ goals
16%
Zenit 1+ goals
75%
Zenit 2+ goals
40%
Zenit 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
50%
Zenit (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.82 + Zenit defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zenit attack 1.45 + Akhmat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Akhmat scores more
37%
level
26%
Zenit scores more
37%

Akhmat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat 1 – 2 Zenit

Zenit beat Akhmat 2-1 in Cup on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.