Akhmat 1–0 Yelimay Semey: Result & Stats

Akhmat

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yelimay Semey

1/19/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Akhmat67%

×Draw22%

Yelimay Semey11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkhmatExpected goals in this matchYelimay Semey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.55

Akhmat

1.75

Yelimay Semey

0.55

Akhmat creates 218% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.10

creates per match

0.60

0.50

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Akhmat

2.10

Yelimay Semey

0.60

allows per match

Akhmat

0.50

Yelimay Semey

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par

Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Yelimay Semey →

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw

89%

Akhmat or Yelimay Semey

78%

Draw or Yelimay Semey

33%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+

39%

Yelimay Semey wins by 2+

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals

83%

Akhmat 2+ goals

52%

Akhmat 3+ goals

25%

Yelimay Semey 1+ goals

42%

Yelimay Semey 2+ goals

11%

Yelimay Semey 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)

86%

Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 2.10 + Yelimay Semey defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Yelimay Semey attack 0.60 + Akhmat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Akhmat scores more

67%

level

22%

Yelimay Semey scores more

11%

Akhmat at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff