Akhmat 3–2 Olmaliq: Result & Stats

Akhmat

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Olmaliq

2/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Akhmat59%

×Draw23%

Olmaliq18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkhmatExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.88

Akhmat

1.80

Olmaliq

0.88

Akhmat creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

2.10

creates per match

1.25

0.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Akhmat

2.10

Olmaliq

1.25

allows per match

Akhmat

0.50

Olmaliq

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Olmaliq →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw

82%

Akhmat or Olmaliq

77%

Draw or Olmaliq

41%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+

34%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals

83%

Akhmat 2+ goals

54%

Akhmat 3+ goals

27%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

59%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

22%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)

77%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 2.10 + Olmaliq defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Olmaliq attack 1.25 + Akhmat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Akhmat scores more

59%

level

23%

Olmaliq scores more

18%

Akhmat at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff