Akhmat 3–0 OFK Beograd: Result & Stats

Akhmat

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

OFK Beograd

1/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Akhmat73%

×Draw16%

OFK Beograd11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkhmatExpected goals in this matchOFK Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.85

Akhmat

2.50

OFK Beograd

0.85

Akhmat creates 194% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.10

creates per match

1.20

0.50

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Akhmat

2.10

OFK Beograd

1.20

allows per match

Akhmat

0.50

OFK Beograd

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par

OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

OFK Beograd →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw

89%

Akhmat or OFK Beograd

84%

Draw or OFK Beograd

27%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+

51%

OFK Beograd wins by 2+

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals

92%

Akhmat 2+ goals

71%

Akhmat 3+ goals

45%

OFK Beograd 1+ goals

57%

OFK Beograd 2+ goals

21%

OFK Beograd 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)

87%

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 2.10 + OFK Beograd defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.50

OFK Beograd attack 1.20 + Akhmat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Akhmat scores more

73%

level

16%

OFK Beograd scores more

11%

Akhmat at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff