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Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod — Cup 2019

Akhmat
Akhmat
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
7/31/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 1Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akhmat52%
×Draw23%
Nizhny Novgorod25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.85
Nizhny Novgorod
1.20

Akhmat creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.82
Nizhny Novgorod
1.11

allows per match

Akhmat
1.29
Nizhny Novgorod
1.89

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
75%
Akhmat or Nizhny Novgorod
77%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
48%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
30%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
84%
Akhmat 2+ goals
55%
Akhmat 3+ goals
28%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
70%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
34%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
68%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.82 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.11 + Akhmat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akhmat scores more
52%
level
23%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
25%

Akhmat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod

Akhmat beat Nizhny Novgorod 4-1 in Cup on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.