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Akhmat vs Navbahor — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Akhmat
Akhmat
CANC
13:30
Navbahor
Navbahor
1/21/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Akhmat72%
×Draw20%
Navbahor9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.93
Navbahor
0.50

Akhmat creates 286% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Akhmat
2.10
Navbahor
0.50

allows per match

Akhmat
0.50
Navbahor
1.75

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Navbahor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
91%
Akhmat or Navbahor
80%
Draw or Navbahor
28%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
45%
Navbahor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
85%
Akhmat 2+ goals
57%
Akhmat 3+ goals
30%
Navbahor 1+ goals
39%
Navbahor 2+ goals
9%
Navbahor 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
89%
Navbahor (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Navbahor away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 2.10 + Navbahor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Navbahor attack 0.50 + Akhmat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Akhmat scores more
72%
level
20%
Navbahor scores more
9%

Akhmat at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat face Navbahor (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Akhmat hosting Navbahor. Match starts January 21, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Akhmat host Navbahor at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.