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Akhmat vs Fakel — Cup 2019

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
15:00
Fakel
Fakel
8/18/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 2Akhmat-Arena
Big match
50%
Akhmat
model favours
50%26%25%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Akhmat50%
×Draw26%
Fakel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.54
Fakel
1.01

Akhmat creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.82
Fakel
0.73

allows per match

Akhmat
1.29
Fakel
1.27

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Fakel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
75%
Akhmat or Fakel
74%
Draw or Fakel
50%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
25%
Fakel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
79%
Akhmat 2+ goals
45%
Akhmat 3+ goals
20%
Fakel 1+ goals
64%
Fakel 2+ goals
27%
Fakel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
67%
Fakel (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Fakel away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.82 + Fakel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fakel attack 0.73 + Akhmat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Akhmat scores more
50%
level
26%
Fakel scores more
25%

Akhmat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Fakel
LDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Akhmat host Fakel

August 18, 2026: Akhmat take on Fakel in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Akhmat host Fakel at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.