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Akhmat vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
15:00
Baltika
Baltika
10/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Akhmat-Arena
Big match
37%
Akhmat
model favours
37%28%35%

Baltika have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Akhmat37%
×Draw28%
Baltika35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.20
Baltika
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.27
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

Akhmat
1.21
Baltika
1.13

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
65%
Akhmat or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
63%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
16%
Baltika wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
70%
Akhmat 2+ goals
34%
Akhmat 3+ goals
12%
Baltika 1+ goals
69%
Baltika 2+ goals
32%
Baltika 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
51%
Baltika (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.27 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Baltika attack 1.10 + Akhmat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Akhmat scores more
37%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
35%

Akhmat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Baltika score first in only 27% of matches
  • Baltika have scored in 8 games running
  • Baltika have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
Baltika
Direct / counter-attacking
42%Possession42%
72%Pass accuracy67%
13.4Shots12.0
0.47xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AkhmatBaltika

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

0
Akhmat
2
Draws
5
Baltika
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 57%
1–12–20–21–71–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Baltika
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat face Baltika (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Akhmat hosting Baltika. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Akhmat host Baltika at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.