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Akhmat vs Akron — Premier League 2018

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
16:00
Akron
Akron
2/27/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Akhmat-Arena
43%
Akhmat
model favours
43%26%31%

Akron win just 12% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akhmat43%
×Draw26%
Akron31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.46
Akron
1.21

Akhmat creates 21% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 32 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.27
Akron
1.22

allows per match

Akhmat
1.21
Akron
1.66

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
69%
Akhmat or Akron
74%
Draw or Akron
57%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
21%
Akron wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
77%
Akhmat 2+ goals
43%
Akhmat 3+ goals
18%
Akron 1+ goals
70%
Akron 2+ goals
34%
Akron 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
58%
Akron (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Akron away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.27 + Akron defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Akron attack 1.22 + Akhmat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akhmat scores more
43%
level
26%
Akron scores more
31%

Akhmat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
Akron
Balanced
42%Possession47%
72%Pass accuracy74%
13.4Shots11.1
0.47xGBiggest gap1.58
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AkhmatAkron

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Akhmat
2
Draws
1
Akron
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
1–13–02–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Akron
DLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat vs Akron — Match Preview

Akhmat face Akron on February 27, 2027 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akhmat host Akron at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.