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Akhmat Grozny vs Tambov — Premier League 2018

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tambov
Tambov
5/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Akhmat Grozny52%
×Draw25%
Tambov23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.64
Tambov
1.00

Akhmat Grozny creates 64% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.27
Tambov
0.80

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.21
Tambov
2.00

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
77%
Akhmat Grozny or Tambov
75%
Draw or Tambov
48%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
28%
Tambov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
81%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
49%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
23%
Tambov 1+ goals
63%
Tambov 2+ goals
26%
Tambov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
69%
Tambov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Tambov away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Tambov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tambov attack 0.80 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
52%
level
25%
Tambov scores more
23%

Akhmat Grozny at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs Tambov

Akhmat Grozny beat Tambov 3-1 in Premier League on May 7, 2021.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.