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Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
7/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Akhmat Grozny47%
×Draw25%
Krylya Sovetov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.53
Krylya Sovetov
1.12

Akhmat Grozny creates 37% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 106 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.27
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.21
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
72%
Akhmat Grozny or Krylya Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
53%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
24%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
78%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
45%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
20%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
67%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
31%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
63%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
47%
level
25%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
28%

Akhmat Grozny at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Akhmat Grozny 2-1 in Premier League on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.