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Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetovadvanced
4/21/2021CupCup · Semi-finalsAkhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akhmat Grozny46%
×Draw23%
Krylya Sovetov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.75
Krylya Sovetov
1.41

Akhmat Grozny creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.82
Krylya Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.29
Krylya Sovetov
1.68

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
69%
Akhmat Grozny or Krylya Sovetov
77%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
54%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
24%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
83%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
52%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
25%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
76%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
41%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
59%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.82 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
46%
level
23%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
31%

Akhmat Grozny at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Akhmat Grozny 0–0 Krylya Sovetov

Akhmat Grozny and Krylya Sovetov drew 0-0 in Cup on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.