Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akhmat Grozny vs FC UFA — Cup 2019

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Groznyadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC UFA
FC UFA
E. Kharin 55'
4/7/2021CupCup · Quarter-finalsAkhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Akhmat Grozny40%
×Draw28%
FC UFA32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.26
FC UFA
1.09

Akhmat Grozny creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.82
FC UFA
0.90

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.29
FC UFA
0.70

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
68%
Akhmat Grozny or FC UFA
72%
Draw or FC UFA
60%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
18%
FC UFA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
72%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
36%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
13%
FC UFA 1+ goals
66%
FC UFA 2+ goals
30%
FC UFA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
56%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.82 + FC UFA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.26

FC UFA attack 0.90 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
40%
level
28%
FC UFA scores more
32%

Akhmat Grozny at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Marat Bystrov
29'
Dmitri Sysuev
30'
Vladislav Kamilov
45+3'
A. Golubev← O. Urunov
55'
E. Kharin
57'
V. Krotov← D. Sysuev
58'
T. Zhamaletdinov← K. Andrić
62'
Parfait Bizoza
63'
L. Almási← V. Iljin
63'
G. Melkadze← B. Berisha
65'
Andrey Semenov
73'
O. Ivanov← P. Bizoza
77'
W. Ángel← E. Kharin
88'
Aleksey Nikitin

Shots

8Akhmat

Statistics

AkhmatFC
Overview
8Total Shots5
5Corners2
13Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots5
5On Target3
3Off Target2
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Cup: Akhmat Grozny 1–0 FC UFA

Akhmat Grozny beat FC UFA 1-0 in Cup on April 7, 2021.

Goals: E. Kharin (55').

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.