Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akhmat Grozny vs Dinamo Moscow — Cup 2019

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
L. Sadulaev 42' (pen)
M. Konaté 17'
A. Kutitskiy 57'
11/23/2022CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 4Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akhmat Grozny43%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Moscow34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.73
Dinamo Moscow
1.52

Akhmat Grozny creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.82
Dinamo Moscow
1.74

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.29
Dinamo Moscow
1.65

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
66%
Akhmat Grozny or Dinamo Moscow
77%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
57%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
82%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
52%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
25%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
56%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.82 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
43%
level
23%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
34%

Akhmat Grozny at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Konaté
27'
D. Lesovoy← V. Grulev
40'
Arsen Zakharyan
42'
L. SadulaevPenalty
50'
Rizvan Utsiev
57'
A. Kutitskiy
60'
Y. Gladyshev← D. Makarov
60'
D. Laxalt← E. Dasa
66'
E. Kharin← L. Sadulaev
72'
V. Karapuzov← B. Berisha
72'
V. Iljin← M. Konaté
74'
F. Smolov← K. Tyukavin
74'
L. Gagnidze← A. Zakharyan
84'
Y. Zhuravlev← A. Shvets
85'
Saba Sazonov

Possession

50%Akhmat

Shots

7Akhmat

Statistics

AkhmatDinamo
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots14
5Corners10
7Fouls18
Shots
7Total Shots14
5On Target7
1Off Target4
1Blocked3
Passing
50%Possession50%
Goalkeeping
13Saves6
Discipline
7Fouls18
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs Dinamo Moscow

Akhmat Grozny beat Dinamo Moscow 2-1 in Cup on November 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Konaté (17'), L. Sadulaev (42' pen), A. Kutitskiy (57').

Akhmat Grozny controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.