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Akhmat Grozny vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
10/28/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Akhmat-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Akhmat Grozny37%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.32
Dinamo Moscow
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.27
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.21
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
63%
Akhmat Grozny or Dinamo Moscow
74%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
63%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
73%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
38%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
50%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
37%
level
26%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
37%

Akhmat Grozny at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Akhmat Grozny 0–0 Dinamo Moscow

Akhmat Grozny and Dinamo Moscow drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Akhmat-Arena in Grozny.