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Akhmat Grozny U20 vs Rotor Volgograd U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Akhmat Grozny U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
FT
2 – 0
Rotor Volgograd U20
Rotor Volgograd U20
L. Sadulaev 84', 72' (pen)
9/11/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 1Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2043%
×Draw23%
Rotor Volgograd U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.73
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.50

Akhmat Grozny U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 14 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.53
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.57

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.43
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.93

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Rotor Volgograd U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw
66%
Akhmat Grozny U20 or Rotor Volgograd U20
77%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd U20
57%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+
23%
Rotor Volgograd U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals
82%
Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals
52%
Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals
25%
Rotor Volgograd U20 1+ goals
78%
Rotor Volgograd U20 2+ goals
44%
Rotor Volgograd U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Rotor Volgograd U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Rotor Volgograd U20 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Rotor Volgograd U20 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rotor Volgograd U20 attack 1.57 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more
43%
level
23%
Rotor Volgograd U20 scores more
34%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
L. SadulaevPenalty
84'
L. Sadulaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Akhmat Grozny U20 2–0 Rotor Volgograd U20

Akhmat Grozny U20 beat Rotor Volgograd U20 2-0 in Youth Championship on September 11, 2020.

Goals: L. Sadulaev (72' pen, 84').

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.