Akhmat Grozny U20 4–0 Orenburg U19: Result & Stats

Akhmat Grozny U20

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Orenburg U19

3/31/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 3Stadion Vaynakh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2060%

×Draw21%

Orenburg U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat Grozny U20Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.11

Akhmat Grozny U20

2.10

Orenburg U19

1.11

Akhmat Grozny U20 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 38 away

1.53

creates per match

0.79

1.43

allows per match

2.66

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.53

Orenburg U19

0.79

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.43

Orenburg U19

2.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Orenburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw

81%

Akhmat Grozny U20 or Orenburg U19

79%

Draw or Orenburg U19

40%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+

37%

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals

88%

Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals

62%

Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals

35%

Orenburg U19 1+ goals

67%

Orenburg U19 2+ goals

30%

Orenburg U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)

75%

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.10

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more

60%

level

21%

Orenburg U19 scores more

19%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Akhmat Grozny U20 4–0 Orenburg U19

Akhmat Grozny U20 beat Orenburg U19 4-0 in Youth Championship on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vaynakh in Shali.

Akhmat Grozny U20 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Youth Championship: Akhmat Grozny U20 4–0 Orenburg U19