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Akhmat Grozny U20 vs Nizhny Novgorod U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Akhmat Grozny U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod U19
Nizhny Novgorod U19
3/8/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 1Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2050%
×Draw23%
Nizhny Novgorod U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.81
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.27

Akhmat Grozny U20 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 74 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.53
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.12

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.43
Nizhny Novgorod U19
2.08

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw
73%
Akhmat Grozny U20 or Nizhny Novgorod U19
77%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod U19
50%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+
28%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals
84%
Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals
54%
Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals
27%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals
72%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals
36%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)
65%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Nizhny Novgorod U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.12 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more
50%
level
23%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more
27%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Akhmat Grozny U20 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod U19

Akhmat Grozny U20 and Nizhny Novgorod U19 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.