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Akhmat Grozny U20 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Akhmat Grozny U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
8/15/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 19Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2029%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Moskva U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.27
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.67

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 79 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.53
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.92

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.43
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.00

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw
53%
Akhmat Grozny U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U19
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U19
71%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+
12%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals
72%
Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals
36%
Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals
14%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals
50%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)
38%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 1.92 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more
29%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more
47%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Akhmat Grozny U20 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 beat Akhmat Grozny U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.