Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akhmat Grozny U20 vs Kuban U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Akhmat Grozny U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kuban U19
Kuban U19
9/30/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 12Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2036%
×Draw28%
Kuban U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.20
Kuban U19
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 14 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.53
Kuban U19
1.00

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.43
Kuban U19
0.86

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par
Kuban U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Kuban U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw
64%
Akhmat Grozny U20 or Kuban U19
72%
Draw or Kuban U19
64%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+
15%
Kuban U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals
70%
Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals
34%
Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals
12%
Kuban U19 1+ goals
70%
Kuban U19 2+ goals
34%
Kuban U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Kuban U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Kuban U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Kuban U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kuban U19 attack 1.00 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more
36%
level
28%
Kuban U19 scores more
36%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny U20 vs Kuban U19

Akhmat Grozny U20 beat Kuban U19 2-1 in Youth Championship on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.