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Akhmat Grozny U20 vs Khimki U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Akhmat Grozny U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
FT
1 – 2
Khimki U20
Khimki U20
12/3/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2048%
×Draw23%
Khimki U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.87
Khimki U20
1.40

Akhmat Grozny U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.53
Khimki U20
1.36

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20
1.43
Khimki U20
2.21

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par
Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Khimki U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw
71%
Akhmat Grozny U20 or Khimki U20
77%
Draw or Khimki U20
52%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+
27%
Khimki U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals
85%
Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals
56%
Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals
29%
Khimki U20 1+ goals
75%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
41%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.87

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more
48%
level
23%
Khimki U20 scores more
29%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Akhmat Grozny U20 1–2 Khimki U20

Khimki U20 beat Akhmat Grozny U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on December 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.