Akhmat Grozny U20 1–3 Arsenal Tula U20

Akhmat Grozny U20

FT

1 – 3

Arsenal Tula U20

10/26/2019

Youth Championship · Round 14Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2040%

×Draw24%

Arsenal Tula U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat Grozny U20Expected goals in this matchArsenal Tula U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.46

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.56

Arsenal Tula U20

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 39 away

1.53

creates per match

1.49

1.43

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.53

Arsenal Tula U20

1.49

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.43

Arsenal Tula U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Arsenal Tula U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw

64%

Akhmat Grozny U20 or Arsenal Tula U20

76%

Draw or Arsenal Tula U20

60%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+

20%

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals

79%

Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals

46%

Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals

21%

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

77%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

43%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more

40%

level

24%

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

36%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff