Akhmat Grozny U20 1–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20

Akhmat Grozny U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akademiya Konoplev U20

3/11/2022

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 1Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Akhmat Grozny U2050%

×Draw22%

Akademiya Konoplev U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat Grozny U20Expected goals in this matchAkademiya Konoplev U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.40

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.95

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.40

Akhmat Grozny U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

1.53

creates per match

1.36

1.43

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.53

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.36

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.43

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny U20 ↓

Akademiya Konoplev U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny U20 or draw

72%

Akhmat Grozny U20 or Akademiya Konoplev U20

78%

Draw or Akademiya Konoplev U20

50%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+

29%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals

86%

Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals

58%

Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals

31%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals

75%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals

41%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)

64%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

Akademiya Konoplev U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.37 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.53 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.95

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.36 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more

50%

level

22%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more

28%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff