Akhisarspor 1–0 Ümraniyespor: Result & Stats

Akhisarspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ümraniyespor

6/28/2020

1. Lig · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Akhisarspor42%

×Draw27%

Ümraniyespor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkhisarsporExpected goals in this matchÜmraniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Akhisarspor

1.35

Ümraniyespor

1.13

Akhisarspor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 125 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

1.09

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Akhisarspor

1.29

Ümraniyespor

1.16

allows per match

Akhisarspor

1.09

Ümraniyespor

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Ümraniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw

69%

Akhisarspor or Ümraniyespor

73%

Draw or Ümraniyespor

58%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+

19%

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals

74%

Akhisarspor 2+ goals

39%

Akhisarspor 3+ goals

15%

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

68%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

31%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)

57%

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.29 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Akhisarspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akhisarspor scores more

42%

level

27%

Ümraniyespor scores more

31%

Akhisarspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff